Does Derek Roy = Nathan Horton? You be the Arbitrator

Derek Roy is scheduled for arbitration at the end of the month. Sabres fans, in my most humble opinion, are likely to get another real jolt. If you look at message boards such as Hockey's Future or Sabreszone or listen to Sabres flagship station WGR550 it seems that the Sabres, and the Sabres fans, want to believe a salary of about $2.0-$2.5 million will get it done. I believe this is wishful thinking.

The Sabres, themselves, set somewhat of a benchmark when they signed Maxim Afinogenov to a $3 million a year contract prior to last season. With the escalation of salaries this is the least I would expect. More likely in my opinion is a salary of nearly $4 million a year. Lets examine the Sabres rational for their offer, which I fully expect to be a 2-year contract with a lowball figure around $2.75 million a year.

Why the Sabres would say Derek Roy isn't worth $4 million a year:

1) He plays regularly with the Sabres two most dynamic players, Thomas Vanek and Maxim Afinogenov. This artificially inflates his statistics.

2) He does not regularly play the power play.

3) He is not an especially gifted defensive player as well. In short he is nothing special either way.

4) His offensive production, with the Afinogenov and Vanek factor considered, is consistent with that of Mike Peca who earned $2.5 million last year.

All in all, I think these are easily defeatable arguments for Roy. There are actually few players in the below $3.0 range as productive as Roy. These are tough arguments for the Sabres.

Now let's examine Derek Roy's likely arguments. I expect, factoring in inflation that Roy will ask for a 2 year deal with a salary in the are of $4.3 million per season.

1) He centered the teams most dynamic offensive line. He had 21 goals, 63 points and a +37 rating in relatively limited ice time. His production is far above average for a 3rd-line center.

2) With Drury and Briere gone he can reasonably expect more ice time, power play time and his statistics to rise in correlation.

3) He compares favorably with John Madden of the Devils who earned $3.982 million last season. Here are their statistics last year in comparison:

Madden 74 games 12 goals 20 assists 32 points -7
Roy 75 games 21 goals 42 assists 63 points +37

4) Careerwise he compares to Nathan Horton who recently signed a 6 year, $24 million deal. Here are their career statistics for comparison:

Horton 208 games 73 goals 58 assists 131 points +18

Roy 194 games 48 goals 80 assists 128 points +30

I believe that Roy's arguments would be extremely persuasive and that he is far more likely to reach the $ 4 million a year plateau than stay down near the $3 million mark.

This, of course, causes the Sabres another headache. I fell the Sabres could ill-afford to walk away from the award. More likely, in my opinion would be for them to cut ties with someone (Spacek and Kotalik are first to come to mind) to clear salary. I respect the Sabres business plan, but it is becoming more apparent by the day that to remain competitive the Sabres will have to readjust up from their current salary structure or fail miserably.

Walker, Rivet and Horton off the market, Emery to have surgery...

The Florida Panthers have re-signed restricted free-agent forward Nathan Horton.

The deal will pay out a total of $24 million to the 22-year old over 6 seasons.

The signing, per TSN, officially ends all speculation that Horton will be dealt at tomorrow's NHL Entry Draft in Columbus.

Horton had a spectacular season at such a young age, ammasing 31 goals and putting up 31 assists while appearing in all 82 games.

A star on the rise, Horton's season was awesome on the scoresheet, but some off-ice rumours a few months before the deadline, which consisted of Horton's unhappiness in the Sunshine State and his desire to be dealt to a contender, prompted speculation he would be dealt at the trade deadline (didn't happen) or at the draft.

-Craig Rivet really like the weather in Western California, and he's going to be there for another 4 seasons.

The Sharks officially signed their hard-hitting defenceman to a 4-year $14 million contract, a potential UFA, Rivet fit in well with the Sharks and broke out in the playoffs as the team's leading defenceman.

Rivet was traded to San Jose on the eve of the trade deadline, in exchange for Josh Gorges and the Shark's 1st round draft choice (23rd overall)

-The Hurricanes also re-signed forward Scott Walker to a 3-year $7.5 million contract, yesterday.

That comes out to about $2.5 million per season.

The 33-year old was eligible for UFA status on July 1st; he had a decent season in Carolina, but nothing compared to his old Nashville days, scoring 21 goals and adding 31 helpers in 81 games.

"Keeping Scott in Carolina was one of our top priorities this off-season," Hurricanes GM Jim Rutherford said in a statement. "He brings skill and grit to our forward lines and he has become one of our team's leaders on and off the ice."

"It was one of the best experiences that I had in renegotiating. I felt really wanted," Walker said. "I like my role, but I also like the way the team is set up for the future, and I think we have a chance to win."

-And to top this transaction segment off, goaltender Ray Emery will undergo surgery for his wrist, which he hurt in November and re-aggravated in the playoffs.

He is not expected to miss the beginning of the regular-season, TSN says he will be out 2-3 months.

Emery, a restricted free-agent, made 925K last year and will likely seek a substantial raise from new Sens GM Bryan Murray, Emery's agent was quoted on TSN's Off the Record with Michael Landsberg that his client might receive an offer sheet soon, and that many teams would be interested in doing so, especially 2-3 teams that he obviously didn't name.

--BBR