Will the Rangers go “All the Way”? - Size Does Matter

In addition to staying True Blue to my tagline of “Shooting From Angles Not Covered By Any Other Blogs”, I am going to be just a little forward and fire my rubber load (so to speak) in the direction of a subject that I have yet to see mentioned on any Ranger blogs, websites, message boards, newspapers or magazines. And if this subject has been covered in any of the aforementioned forms of “social intercourse”, its coverage has been scanty.

While the main focus continues to be (and justifiably so) on the Rangers sizzling summer, double-dip splash into the UFA pool – A.K.A. Scott Gomez and Chris Drury – other ubiquitous Ranger topics include: 1) draft day’s Russian Heist (Alexei Cherapanov), 2) the relatively peaceful signings of Henrik Lundquist, Brendan Shanahan, Petr Prucha and Marcel Hossa, 3) the signing of Sean Avery after an ornery arbitration hearing (and its long-term consequences), 4) the trading of Matt Cullen and who his replacement will be, 5) the potential impact of Marc Staal and other highly touted prospects, 6) what will become of the current glut of defensemen and how the defense corps will ultimately pan out, 7) general opinions on the Rangers chances of winning the Stanley Cup, etc.

What never seems to be brought up is a very simple question: Are the Rangers physically equipped to be capable of winning the Stanley Cup? One of the reasons this potent poser should be a timely one is the urge that some of the league has had to enlarge since the events of last spring. Once the Anaheim Ducks consummated their season with hockey’s ultimate gratification, the Stanley Cup, some NHL teams have chosen to “go with the flow” and mimic the mighty Ducks. This was evident in the 2007 entry draft, where some teams refused to succumb to the temptation of raw talent, and instead decided to reload their pistols with brawnier ammunition. After all, in this copy-cat league the physically dominant Ducks have become the envy of all their gamey rivals in the hunt for next year’s big prize.

One might argue that the league’s rules favor fast, skilled teams - not necessarily big ones, and Anaheim’s championship was more an aberration as opposed to the beginning of a new trend. This argument would be supported by the fact that no Stanley Cup winner has repeated in 10 years, and that historically a size advantage in the playoffs doesn’t necessarily become the deciding factor. The Philadelphia Flyers, in their Bobby Clarke days, are the probably the best examples. On the other hand, had the Flyers actually added an elite goalie to the mix for many of these years, their physicality might have been the force that carried them over the top to lift Lord Stanley’s Cup.

The biggest difference between today’s hefty hockey teams and those of yesteryear is that some of the current NHL teams, namely Anaheim and San Jose, have a frightening combination of size, strength, speed and youth. Anyone, who was watching the Detroit-San Jose series, would have bet the family fish tank after game 3 that the Sharks were going to swim away with this one. But despite being seemingly over-aged, out-muscled, out-skated and out-matched for much of the first 3 games, Detroit proved in a stunning 3 game turnaround that a “strength of character” advantage can sometimes offset an entire host of physical deficiencies. Should the Sharks be able to overcome their character issues this year, their daunting endowment of assets might make them the favorites to sink their teeth into the Cup.

Anaheim is dealing with a number off-season issues often encountered by defending Stanley Cup champions, such as players contemplating retirement and an increase in their players’ perceived value (and salary demands). This often leads to the loss of some players, who are lured away by other teams willing to overpay for their services. So depending on how things shake out for Anaheim, they could be headed for a fall this spring. On the other hand, should Anaheim eventually be able to get their Ducks in a row without ruffling too many of their franchise feathers, they will be every bit as formidable as they were last year.

What about the Rangers? As much as I enjoyed their brilliant resurrection late last season, which climaxed with an improbable surge to the playoffs and a first round thumping of a throttled Thrasher team, I knew that they realistically had no chance of “going all the way”. Although the Rangers inevitable encounter with the Buffalo proved to be a much closer contest than I could have ever anticipated, ultimately they were destined to succumb to the Sabres wealth of weapons.

But even if the Rangers could have pulled off the humongous upset against Buffalo and had the stamina to outlast the Senators (in what would have been a tough and evenly matched series), their bubble would certainly have burst against a physically superior Western Conference foe.

In the playoffs, much of a team’s success depends upon which opponents they are pitted against and how well they match-up against them. The Rangers had plenty of skill and speed, but not nearly as much as Buffalo. The Rangers certainly had enough size and grit to physically stand up to any Eastern Conference team that made the tournament, but not nearly enough to withstand the perpetual pounding that they would have received at the hands of the Ducks or Sharks. Had the Rangers encountered either of these teams in the Finals, they would have been eaten alive – as Duck soup for Anaheim or as Shark bait for San Jose.

In fact, the Rangers were fortunate that Philadelphia and Toronto didn’t make the playoffs last year. In the regular season, even though the Rangers could compete with these teams, it was obvious that both the Flyers and Leafs were more broadly built than the Blueshirts. Had the Rangers faced either squad in the post season, they would have had trouble holding their own in hit-for-hit hockey. Of course, the more drawn-out a series becomes and the further into the playoffs the match-up occurs, the more difficult it is for a smaller team to cope with the carnage inflicted by their colossal counterparts. This means that the Rangers would have a better chance of surviving this kind of clash had it occurred in the first or second round, as opposed to the final two rounds.

Relatively also enters into this equation. Certainly a team can more easily overcome a disadvantage, if the disadvantage is a minor or moderate one. A real mismatch can arise when one team has substantial supremacy in size, speed, or skill.

As teams continue to assemble the off-season pieces to their respective puzzles, it’s hard to say for certain how much of a relative advantage/disadvantage each club will have next year in the desirable attributes of size, speed, and skill. We won’t know the answers until each team’s internal competitions have been decided in league-wide training camps and all their final transactions have been made.

Aside from particular line combinations and defensemen pairings, the Rangers really have only a few spots that remain in question. Assuming that Ryan Callahan and Daniel Girardi have completed their post graduation requirements from the Hartford Academy and will remain in New York, along with two year veteran, Hossa, that leaves only one center position, a couple of fourth line positions, and one or two defense positions remaining in limbo (assuming no further trades).

Therefore, we have a pretty good picture of how the Rangers breakdown in some of the key physical categories. They would appear to have good (but not excellent) team speed and plenty of skill that would probably allow them to stay competitive (in this sense) with just about any team in the playoffs – especially since the Sabres machine lost two of their main cogs in Briere and Drury. Although the Rangers parted with a very speedy center in Matt Cullen and a very skilled center in Michael Nylander, they picked up two very fast centers in Gomez and Drury – with Gomez possessing excellent playmaking skills and Drury bringing a host of intangible qualities (one of which bit the Blueshirts in the butt in game 5 of the Sabres series).

As far as size and strength goes, they’re simply not among the Rangers strong suits - notwithstanding a couple of players whose physical force could potentially wear down their playoff opponents, such as Jaromir Jagr and Hossa. This is not to say that the Blueshirts don’t have some gritty players, as well as some other players (aside from Jagr and Hossa) of impressive stature - at least 6’1” and over 210 lbs. It’s just that Shanahan, Marik Malik and Paul Mara don’t play a physical style that wears down the opposition, while Colton Orr and Jason Strudwick are fringe players who are often not dressed.

Brad Isbister, whose offensive capabilities could never be confused with Joe Thornton’s, did provide the Rangers with some well-needed bulk late last season and in the playoffs. His ability to work the boards, cycle the puck and compliment Jagr made him an effective player, and in that sense, he will be missed. I should also mention that if the question mark at center is answered by Brandon Dubinsky, then on top of the other talents he brings to the table, his ponderous proportions and feistiness would definitely be a welcomed addition to the team.

Overall, I would say that the Rangers could physically endure a playoff series against most teams, but would very likely get blown away by the power of some of the jumbo jets they could engage in battle.

The reason that I’ve barely touched upon the “joys of youth” is because a Stanley Cup championship team is generally composed of a nice blend of young bucks and wily vets. Next season, the Rangers will probably have the right mixture of those ingredients.

Perhaps the most important factor in determining whether the Rangers have a chance to “win it all” is chance itself. Who knows if the elements that GM, Glen Sather, compounds will result in good chemistry? Who knows how healthy the team will be, especially heading into the playoffs? Who knows if a topsy-turvy season will be topsy or turvy in late April? And finally, who knows in the pursuit of the ultimate conquest, what sequence of opponents will need to be conquered?

So with size being one of many uncertain variables, will Lady Luck scorn the Rangers for their physical shortcomings? Or will the Rangers have the goods to get the gold (silver in this case)? These answers will go a long way in determining how deeply they can penetrate into the big dance come next spring. The final score will either show the Rangers living large as Stanley Cup champions, or being pre-maturely humbled as inadequate also-rans.

Postscript: Should the Rangers surmount all the obstacles and defy all the odds this season to hoist hockey’s Holy Grail, then next summer they would be wise to beware of invaders from the Great White North (Edmonton). For if “Kevin the Poacher” aims his next Lowe blow at the Rangers family jewels, they must prepare themselves by defending their Cup.

Courtesy of The Hockey Humorist - http://hockeyhumorist.blogspot.com/

Did You Enjoy This Post? If So, Tell Me - If Not, Blast Me!

Penner's new deal with Oilers an ominous sign for NHL...

Various media sources are reporting the Edmonton Oilers have officially signed former Ducks forward Dustin Penner to a 5-year/$21.5 million contract.

The young sniper played in all 82 games for the Stanley Cup champions Ducks last season, scoring 29 goals and adding 16 assists for a total of 45 points and 202 shots on goal.

The signing occurs a few weeks after Lowe made a bold move in signing the Sabres' Tomas Vanek to a $7 million per season offer sheet, only to see Buffalo GM Darcy Regier match within 19 minutes.

The 6'4'', 245-pound Winkler, Manitoba native just scored big time in the bank, and the NHL should be worried.

A few years down the road, maybe, just maybe he'd be worth the money he just got from a desperate Kevin Lowe...but at this point in his career? A 24-year old sophomore with a season and a quarter under his belt making a little over $4 million per season seems too much like the old NHL, where GM's paid wildly for any hint of talent available to them.

Scott Hartnell, who recently signed a similar pact with the Philadelphia Flyers, belongs in that pool of "paying for potential, not production" players. Both Penner and Hartnell will earn $4.2 million annually for the next 5 and 6 seasons respectively.

So what does this mean for the future RFA market?

For starters, teams may be tempted to sign future restricted free-agent Jason Spezza to an offer sheet next summer, and with the Senators trying to hold on to potential unrestricted 50-goal man Dany Heatley as well, someone may very well succeed in prying him from Sens GM Bryan Murray's hands.

But not so fast, this signing of Penner is also an ominous sign.
A sign that the NHL is heading back to its old days of overpriced free-agents and overrated players...I'm starting to wonder why we lost a complete season of hockey and why Gary Bettman and the NHL are so STUBBORN not to realize what's going on.

It was a mistake to make the cap rise again to $50.3 million, if the NHL knows what's good for their league finances and fans, they'll lower that number to $45 million next year and leaves GM's little room to spend the $7 million Chris Drury got, and the $10 million Dany Heatley will likely get if this continues next year.
They won't lower the cap, so scratch that.

If they actually used their brains, they'd finally figure out that the more the cap raises, the more salaries for elite players will go up, and the more we'll be drifting back to the pre-lockout era and a potential lockout/labour dispute again.

This signing not only makes the RFA market a whole new attractive destination for GM's, and a headache for the NHL, but it also marks the end of the Brian Burke-Kevin Lowe friendship, at least according to Burke's recent harsh words to the media.

-BBeR

Caught in His Own Duck Trap, Will Burke Lowe-r “The Finger”?

They say “it’s lonely at the top”. This certainly appears to be the case for general manager, Brian Burke, of the defending Stanley Cup champion Anaheim Ducks, who appears to have gotten tangled up in a Duck trap of his own making. Not knowing the status of returning/retiring stars Teemu Selanne and Scott Niedermayer, combined with tight salary cap numbers, the Ducks inadvertently left duckling, Dustin Penner, ripe for poachers. Enter Edmonton general manager, Kevin Lowe, whose final bazooka shot in this year’s RFA hunting season, is a bulls-eye aimed right at the beak of Penner.

Burke has publicly ripped into Lowe for what he calls “an act of desperation by a general manager who is fighting to keep his job". Burke’s beef seems to be more about the amount of the Oilers offer sheet to Penner (reportedly 5 years for $21.25 million), as opposed to the act of trying to snatch the young Duck from his Anaheim nest. Burke complained that “this is the second time this year in my opinion Edmonton have offered a grossly inflated salary for a player, and it impacts on all 30 teams”.

It’s amazing to me how times have changed, when in the past, it was always the big market teams – led by the fiscally irresponsible Rangers – who were accused by small market teams, like Edmonton, of inflating player salaries by overpaying for talent. Now, the new salary cap system creates the opportunity for a small market team - whose obscure northern location is as inviting to free agents as a bad case of Pneumonic Plague - to turn the system upside-down (or at least sideways) and grossly overpay for a player who has scored all of 45 points in his fledgling 82 game regular season career.

Regardless of which frozen pond (Edmonton’s or Anaheim’s) Penner ends up skating on for the next 5 years, there are two certainties: 1) he will be earning an average of over $4 million per year, and 2) his contract, inked in unchartered waters, will have a rippling effect on future RFA contract negotiations between NHL teams and their young, potential stars.

Burke isn’t tipping his hand on which way is leaning on this issue – other than to indicate that he must confer with ownership before making the call. No matter the outcome, this should certainly be an amusing week for all of us as the Thursday deadline approaches for the Ducks final decision. Something tells me that, regardless of when Burke and the Ducks make up their minds, this one is going to go down to the final minutes - partially because this ordeal has gotten so personal between Burke and Lowe that Burke has even ripped Lowe for the timing of his attempted heist. Burke said "I thought Kevin would have called me and told me it was coming. I thought that was gutless…I think it's a classless move timing-wise”.

Brian, maybe it’s just me, but I never knew that there was a polite way to forcefully clip a Duck’s feathers. But it’s another thought that I have that really has me eagerly anticipating the Thursday Duck-Oiler shootout. Given the bad blood that has developed between Burke and Lowe, I keeping wondering whether the “Dustin Duel” will end up like the infamous “Sakic Skirmish” of 1997, when Rangers general manager, Neil Smith, unsuccessfully attempted to pillage the cash-strapped Avalanche with a front-loaded RFA offer to Joe Sakic.

That week-long event climaxed with Colorado general manager, Pierre Lacroix, sending a last minute fax to the Rangers (just to stick it to Smith), indicating that they had matched the offer sheet to Sakic. As an appreciative gesture to Smith and the Rangers for further f__king up their financial affairs, Lacroix’s fax included the legendary 1976 picture of vice-president, Nelson Rockefeller, “Giving the Finger” to a group of political hecklers in New York.

As D-Day approaches, we can only wonder whether Burke will handle his hardship with humility and class, or whether he will strike Kevin with a Lowe blow. Let’s all keep “The Fingers” crossed.

Courtesy of The Hockey Humorist - http://hockeyhumorist.blogspot.com/

All Reader Feedback is Appreciated!

Souray Sweepstakes: We All Missed the Obvious

For the past two weeks the Sheldon Souray Sweepstakes has intrigued everyone. Speculation has centered mostly around the Kings, Sharks, Ducks, Devils, Rangers, etc. But this stallion (offensively at least) went to a "dark horse" candidate - the Oilers.

One could argue that Souray being an Alberta native, combined with Kevin's Lowe's ability and need to spend big bucks to land a thoroughbred UFA, would have made the Oilers one of the favourites all along. Those issues were probably a factor, but the most important element and main reason why Souray will be doing his skating (and shooting) in Edmonton this year is because he is not living with his wife. Since Angelica Bridges is a Los Angeles based actress, there is currently no Mrs. Souray accompanying him - telling him to choose between her and the City of Edmonton. Where Kevin Lowe failed with Mrs. Pronger and Mrs. Nylander, he never had to worry about with Souray. Although we all should have known this, we never saw it coming.

In fact as an offshoot of the Souray situation, Kevin Lowe may have brilliantly hatched an effective new strategy: target the most talented, maritally non-attached free agents in the NHL. He could further enhance this strategy by turning Edmonton into a singles haven. Don't be surprised if the next contracts he signs are with Hooters or Playboy Enterprises, before resuming his pursuit of elite hockey talent. Let's not underestimate Kevin Lowe again. He's a great competitor, who may have just learned how to turn a liability into an asset.

Souray Signs with Oilers!

BBeR 5:07 PM update: [Sorry for butting in by the way, just wanted to add one thing]
Souray's deal will pay him a total of $27 million over the course of 5 seasons, according to nos amis over at RDS.

According to TSN.ca:

Sheldon Souray is on his way to Edmonton as the Oilers and the free agent blueliner agreed on a contract.

The Elk Point, Alberta native appeared in 81 games with the Montreal Canadiens in 2006-07 and had a career year with 26 goals and 64 points. Nineteen of his 26 goals came on the power play, which set an NHL record for defencemen.

The six-foot-four, 220-pound blueliner was drafted by the New Jersey Devils in the 1994 entry draft. He has played in 506 regular-season games with New Jersey and Montreal, recording 66 goals and 120 assists while posting 812 penalty minutes.

The two-time All-Star played three seasons with the Devils before being traded to the Canadiens in 2000 in a deal for Vladimir Malakhov.

(Details to follow)

Looks like Kevin Lowe finally succeeded in landing a big-name free agent. It will be interesting to see how much Souray got.

A next year for Stoll?

Wait 'till next year.

As frustrating as that might be to fans of the Edmonton Oilers, it has an entirely different eaning for forward Jarret Stoll.
Out of action since Feb. 1 with a concussion, Stoll has no guarantee there will be a next year.
While Stoll is hopeful he'll be back this season, he understands that his first concussion with the Oilers could be his last.

-Edmonton/Canadian Press

This is very, very sad news indeed for Stoll. Out since February 1st, Stoll's career is now endangered of coming to an end. Stoll claims Samuel Pahlsson of the Anaheim Ducks began his concussion problems in early February in game when he threw Stoll against the boards from behind.
He recovered but his return was short lived as just 2 days later, a vicious hit from the Canucks' Kevin Bieksa put him out of action for good.

Stoll has 13 goals and 26 assists for a total of 39 points and is +2 in 51 games this season. This is a huge decline compared to last year's 68 point campaign.

He's looked brilliant in his first few years as an NHL'er despite flashes of wild inconsistency.
The Oilers have already lost many pieces to their puzzle this season thru injuries and a certain trade which has devastated their win-loss record since and they now find themselves in a race for the bottom. Patrick Kane? Here we come!

They've lost production out of Fernando Pisani, he looks like he's up in the stars when he plays.
Shawn Horcoff has not lived up to the expectations after a career year last season. Goaltender Dwayne Roloson has had to fight many difficult moments in the Oilers' net with a shoddy defence in front of him, the loss of Chris Pronger took a harder hit than expected as the Oilers' troubles have begun on defence.
Joffrey Lupul has been a total bust this season and has not put up respectable numbers.
They have a couple of AHL-calibre defencemen playing every game, namely Jan Hejda...and inexperienced rookies getting full-time playing time (Brad Winchester, J.F. Jacques...).
Here's the best one: their leading point-getter among defenceman is...wait for it...JASON SMITH, yep, the hearty captain with only SEVEN.

You see, and now you wonder why the Oilers are losing big...all these items just can't co-exist on the same team, at least for now.
Covered In Oil had an interesting post a few days ago and compared the current Oilers lineup to the Stanley Cup finals' lineup. You can see a huge difference.

I'm not the Oil expert, but it doesn't take a genius to see that the city of Edmonton is now in mourning...I feel for you Oilers fans, I've said it before and I'll say it again...