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09 August 2007

Will the Rangers go “All the Way”? - Size Does Matter

In addition to staying True Blue to my tagline of “Shooting From Angles Not Covered By Any Other Blogs”, I am going to be just a little forward and fire my rubber load (so to speak) in the direction of a subject that I have yet to see mentioned on any Ranger blogs, websites, message boards, newspapers or magazines. And if this subject has been covered in any of the aforementioned forms of “social intercourse”, its coverage has been scanty.

While the main focus continues to be (and justifiably so) on the Rangers sizzling summer, double-dip splash into the UFA pool – A.K.A. Scott Gomez and Chris Drury – other ubiquitous Ranger topics include: 1) draft day’s Russian Heist (Alexei Cherapanov), 2) the relatively peaceful signings of Henrik Lundquist, Brendan Shanahan, Petr Prucha and Marcel Hossa, 3) the signing of Sean Avery after an ornery arbitration hearing (and its long-term consequences), 4) the trading of Matt Cullen and who his replacement will be, 5) the potential impact of Marc Staal and other highly touted prospects, 6) what will become of the current glut of defensemen and how the defense corps will ultimately pan out, 7) general opinions on the Rangers chances of winning the Stanley Cup, etc.

What never seems to be brought up is a very simple question: Are the Rangers physically equipped to be capable of winning the Stanley Cup? One of the reasons this potent poser should be a timely one is the urge that some of the league has had to enlarge since the events of last spring. Once the Anaheim Ducks consummated their season with hockey’s ultimate gratification, the Stanley Cup, some NHL teams have chosen to “go with the flow” and mimic the mighty Ducks. This was evident in the 2007 entry draft, where some teams refused to succumb to the temptation of raw talent, and instead decided to reload their pistols with brawnier ammunition. After all, in this copy-cat league the physically dominant Ducks have become the envy of all their gamey rivals in the hunt for next year’s big prize.

One might argue that the league’s rules favor fast, skilled teams - not necessarily big ones, and Anaheim’s championship was more an aberration as opposed to the beginning of a new trend. This argument would be supported by the fact that no Stanley Cup winner has repeated in 10 years, and that historically a size advantage in the playoffs doesn’t necessarily become the deciding factor. The Philadelphia Flyers, in their Bobby Clarke days, are the probably the best examples. On the other hand, had the Flyers actually added an elite goalie to the mix for many of these years, their physicality might have been the force that carried them over the top to lift Lord Stanley’s Cup.

The biggest difference between today’s hefty hockey teams and those of yesteryear is that some of the current NHL teams, namely Anaheim and San Jose, have a frightening combination of size, strength, speed and youth. Anyone, who was watching the Detroit-San Jose series, would have bet the family fish tank after game 3 that the Sharks were going to swim away with this one. But despite being seemingly over-aged, out-muscled, out-skated and out-matched for much of the first 3 games, Detroit proved in a stunning 3 game turnaround that a “strength of character” advantage can sometimes offset an entire host of physical deficiencies. Should the Sharks be able to overcome their character issues this year, their daunting endowment of assets might make them the favorites to sink their teeth into the Cup.

Anaheim is dealing with a number off-season issues often encountered by defending Stanley Cup champions, such as players contemplating retirement and an increase in their players’ perceived value (and salary demands). This often leads to the loss of some players, who are lured away by other teams willing to overpay for their services. So depending on how things shake out for Anaheim, they could be headed for a fall this spring. On the other hand, should Anaheim eventually be able to get their Ducks in a row without ruffling too many of their franchise feathers, they will be every bit as formidable as they were last year.

What about the Rangers? As much as I enjoyed their brilliant resurrection late last season, which climaxed with an improbable surge to the playoffs and a first round thumping of a throttled Thrasher team, I knew that they realistically had no chance of “going all the way”. Although the Rangers inevitable encounter with the Buffalo proved to be a much closer contest than I could have ever anticipated, ultimately they were destined to succumb to the Sabres wealth of weapons.

But even if the Rangers could have pulled off the humongous upset against Buffalo and had the stamina to outlast the Senators (in what would have been a tough and evenly matched series), their bubble would certainly have burst against a physically superior Western Conference foe.

In the playoffs, much of a team’s success depends upon which opponents they are pitted against and how well they match-up against them. The Rangers had plenty of skill and speed, but not nearly as much as Buffalo. The Rangers certainly had enough size and grit to physically stand up to any Eastern Conference team that made the tournament, but not nearly enough to withstand the perpetual pounding that they would have received at the hands of the Ducks or Sharks. Had the Rangers encountered either of these teams in the Finals, they would have been eaten alive – as Duck soup for Anaheim or as Shark bait for San Jose.

In fact, the Rangers were fortunate that Philadelphia and Toronto didn’t make the playoffs last year. In the regular season, even though the Rangers could compete with these teams, it was obvious that both the Flyers and Leafs were more broadly built than the Blueshirts. Had the Rangers faced either squad in the post season, they would have had trouble holding their own in hit-for-hit hockey. Of course, the more drawn-out a series becomes and the further into the playoffs the match-up occurs, the more difficult it is for a smaller team to cope with the carnage inflicted by their colossal counterparts. This means that the Rangers would have a better chance of surviving this kind of clash had it occurred in the first or second round, as opposed to the final two rounds.

Relatively also enters into this equation. Certainly a team can more easily overcome a disadvantage, if the disadvantage is a minor or moderate one. A real mismatch can arise when one team has substantial supremacy in size, speed, or skill.

As teams continue to assemble the off-season pieces to their respective puzzles, it’s hard to say for certain how much of a relative advantage/disadvantage each club will have next year in the desirable attributes of size, speed, and skill. We won’t know the answers until each team’s internal competitions have been decided in league-wide training camps and all their final transactions have been made.

Aside from particular line combinations and defensemen pairings, the Rangers really have only a few spots that remain in question. Assuming that Ryan Callahan and Daniel Girardi have completed their post graduation requirements from the Hartford Academy and will remain in New York, along with two year veteran, Hossa, that leaves only one center position, a couple of fourth line positions, and one or two defense positions remaining in limbo (assuming no further trades).

Therefore, we have a pretty good picture of how the Rangers breakdown in some of the key physical categories. They would appear to have good (but not excellent) team speed and plenty of skill that would probably allow them to stay competitive (in this sense) with just about any team in the playoffs – especially since the Sabres machine lost two of their main cogs in Briere and Drury. Although the Rangers parted with a very speedy center in Matt Cullen and a very skilled center in Michael Nylander, they picked up two very fast centers in Gomez and Drury – with Gomez possessing excellent playmaking skills and Drury bringing a host of intangible qualities (one of which bit the Blueshirts in the butt in game 5 of the Sabres series).

As far as size and strength goes, they’re simply not among the Rangers strong suits - notwithstanding a couple of players whose physical force could potentially wear down their playoff opponents, such as Jaromir Jagr and Hossa. This is not to say that the Blueshirts don’t have some gritty players, as well as some other players (aside from Jagr and Hossa) of impressive stature - at least 6’1” and over 210 lbs. It’s just that Shanahan, Marik Malik and Paul Mara don’t play a physical style that wears down the opposition, while Colton Orr and Jason Strudwick are fringe players who are often not dressed.

Brad Isbister, whose offensive capabilities could never be confused with Joe Thornton’s, did provide the Rangers with some well-needed bulk late last season and in the playoffs. His ability to work the boards, cycle the puck and compliment Jagr made him an effective player, and in that sense, he will be missed. I should also mention that if the question mark at center is answered by Brandon Dubinsky, then on top of the other talents he brings to the table, his ponderous proportions and feistiness would definitely be a welcomed addition to the team.

Overall, I would say that the Rangers could physically endure a playoff series against most teams, but would very likely get blown away by the power of some of the jumbo jets they could engage in battle.

The reason that I’ve barely touched upon the “joys of youth” is because a Stanley Cup championship team is generally composed of a nice blend of young bucks and wily vets. Next season, the Rangers will probably have the right mixture of those ingredients.

Perhaps the most important factor in determining whether the Rangers have a chance to “win it all” is chance itself. Who knows if the elements that GM, Glen Sather, compounds will result in good chemistry? Who knows how healthy the team will be, especially heading into the playoffs? Who knows if a topsy-turvy season will be topsy or turvy in late April? And finally, who knows in the pursuit of the ultimate conquest, what sequence of opponents will need to be conquered?

So with size being one of many uncertain variables, will Lady Luck scorn the Rangers for their physical shortcomings? Or will the Rangers have the goods to get the gold (silver in this case)? These answers will go a long way in determining how deeply they can penetrate into the big dance come next spring. The final score will either show the Rangers living large as Stanley Cup champions, or being pre-maturely humbled as inadequate also-rans.

Postscript: Should the Rangers surmount all the obstacles and defy all the odds this season to hoist hockey’s Holy Grail, then next summer they would be wise to beware of invaders from the Great White North (Edmonton). For if “Kevin the Poacher” aims his next Lowe blow at the Rangers family jewels, they must prepare themselves by defending their Cup.

Courtesy of The Hockey Humorist - http://hockeyhumorist.blogspot.com/

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13 fanatics have replied:

Anonymous said...

An interesting read there, but let's be serious....the Rangers are not going to win the Stanley Cup this year, or any time soon. Drury and Gomez are prized free agent pickups, on this we can all agree. But it doesn't gift them the Cup. Lundqvist is overrated. The franchise is soul-less. Not a chance.

The Hockey Humorist said...

I would say that their chances are not good to win the Cup, but they do have some chance.

By the end of last season, the Rangers were one of the best teams in the East, and this year they could make it to the finals. As I wrote in the post, they won't be able to beat San Jose or Anaheim. However, if another team prevails out west, they might have a chance of winning. Every thing would have to fall into place for this to happen, which is why it is very unlikely.

You're dead wrong about Lundquist. I've watched every game he's played the past two years. He is an awesome goalie, who has proven that he can perform in clutch situations and pressure games. In my opinion there is no better goalie in the league. His nomination as one of the Vezina finalists two years in a row is pretty good evidence that he is one of the top goalies.

As far as the franchise being soul-less, that's a matter of opinion. They are probably less soul-less than they used to be.

I appreciate your feedback.

kronis said...

Lundqvist is a decent goalie, sure, but one of the best in the League? Nah. He had no business being nominated for the Vezina last year over Ryan Miller, JS Giguere, and maybe one other.
I for one expect the Rangers to take a dip this year rather than push up to being one of the best teams in the East. They were lucky to draw ATL last year in the playoffs or they would have been out in the first round and either the Islanders or Devils would have advanced.

The Hockey Humorist said...

The Rangers, who destroyed Atlanta, would have also beaten the Devils, Islanders and Tampa for sure in the playoffs last year. They would have had a 50% chance aginst either Pittsburgh or Ottawa - leaving them 2nd to 4th best in the East.

Brodeur was an embarrasment in the playoffs - letting in horrible goals from horrible angles for the better part of two series. Lundquist totally outplayed him in the playoffs.

Miller and Giguere are also great goalies who played for better teams than the Rangers. However, despite being on a better team, Miller did not outplay Lundquist in their playoff series.

If Lundquist had played for the Ducks, then he would have added the Stanley Cup to his collection of Olympic Gold and Swedish Elite League Champion - accomplished during the lockout season, when top NHL players were in the league (including an in his prime all-star and former Vezina trophy winner, Jose Theodore (who Lundquist outdueled in the finals).

The Dark Ranger said...

Let us all check in about eight months from now -- the truth is everyone is waiting to see if we are dealing with the Rangers-of-old or a newly refurbished team of veterans and up-and-coming youth players currently in the lineup.

Both Girardi and Callahan stepped up (for injury reasons) last half of the season and changed the dynamic (along with Avery) youthfully energized a losing season.

For all of the Ranger-naysayers out there -- I have lived hearing this crap every year post '94 -- no has actually seen that the Rangers of today are one of the top prospect teams in the league. Even Blogger-Gods HockeyBuzz, Spectors, etc. -- the Rangers, the Wolfpack, those in line to be Blueshirts makeup one of the most balanced teams today.

Yes they have great new free agents. Yes they have a stereotype. Yes they have a history of buying their way into their roster. Yes no one has really paid attention until the ATlanta sweep.

Wake up people. Look beyond your own team. The Rangers earned a shot at one of the WEstern powerhouses last season because they were playing with 'heart' and 'the real deal.' Almost doesn't count, but it's bigger than you think.

The Dark Ranger

The Hockey Humorist said...

Well stated, Dark Ranger!

Perhaps you can straighten these guys out on their misperceptions about Lundquist.

The Dark Ranger said...

Henrik Lundquist:
* New York Rangers single season record for most wins by a rookie goaltender with 30 victories in the 2005-06 campaign.
* New York Rangers record as the Second Goaltender all time to record back to back 30 win seasons with 30 in 2005-06 and 37 2006-07 seasons. The first being none other than Eddie Giacomin.
* The MSG fans have nicknamed Henrik "THE KING."

Enough said. THE KING is a great goalie, especially given the lack of Rangers defense.

tdr

The Hockey Humorist said...

The man has spoken!

And nobody takes the Dark Ranger lightly.

HH

Anonymous said...

the dark ranger? ha...
one man's opinion, and that only

good luck this coming season!

The Dark Ranger said...

The Dark Ranger lurks....
Not a man...
but a way of life.

tdr

The Hockey Humorist said...

Hey anonymous,

It looks like you've found yourself on the dark side of an entire "way of life".

I submit that it is you in need of good luck this coming season!

Anonymous said...

Will the Rangers go "all the way"?

Bwa ha ha ha ha ha...

You guys are too funny.

The Hockey Humorist said...

Hey anonymous,

The 24 teams who were eliminated before the Rangers last year aren't laughing, especially the Thrashers who are probably still crying.

If you're a Canadiens fan, then you shouldn't be laughing either, after the way the Rangers all but eliminated them in a dominating performance at the end of the regular season.

If you are not a Canadiens fan, then I apologize to the BBR for having to bring this up.

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All Rights Reserved. The content of this blog is the sole opinion of these bloggers and does not represent an opinion of any kind of a professional NHL hockey team mentioned.