Does Derek Roy = Nathan Horton? You be the Arbitrator

Derek Roy is scheduled for arbitration at the end of the month. Sabres fans, in my most humble opinion, are likely to get another real jolt. If you look at message boards such as Hockey's Future or Sabreszone or listen to Sabres flagship station WGR550 it seems that the Sabres, and the Sabres fans, want to believe a salary of about $2.0-$2.5 million will get it done. I believe this is wishful thinking.

The Sabres, themselves, set somewhat of a benchmark when they signed Maxim Afinogenov to a $3 million a year contract prior to last season. With the escalation of salaries this is the least I would expect. More likely in my opinion is a salary of nearly $4 million a year. Lets examine the Sabres rational for their offer, which I fully expect to be a 2-year contract with a lowball figure around $2.75 million a year.

Why the Sabres would say Derek Roy isn't worth $4 million a year:

1) He plays regularly with the Sabres two most dynamic players, Thomas Vanek and Maxim Afinogenov. This artificially inflates his statistics.

2) He does not regularly play the power play.

3) He is not an especially gifted defensive player as well. In short he is nothing special either way.

4) His offensive production, with the Afinogenov and Vanek factor considered, is consistent with that of Mike Peca who earned $2.5 million last year.

All in all, I think these are easily defeatable arguments for Roy. There are actually few players in the below $3.0 range as productive as Roy. These are tough arguments for the Sabres.

Now let's examine Derek Roy's likely arguments. I expect, factoring in inflation that Roy will ask for a 2 year deal with a salary in the are of $4.3 million per season.

1) He centered the teams most dynamic offensive line. He had 21 goals, 63 points and a +37 rating in relatively limited ice time. His production is far above average for a 3rd-line center.

2) With Drury and Briere gone he can reasonably expect more ice time, power play time and his statistics to rise in correlation.

3) He compares favorably with John Madden of the Devils who earned $3.982 million last season. Here are their statistics last year in comparison:

Madden 74 games 12 goals 20 assists 32 points -7
Roy 75 games 21 goals 42 assists 63 points +37

4) Careerwise he compares to Nathan Horton who recently signed a 6 year, $24 million deal. Here are their career statistics for comparison:

Horton 208 games 73 goals 58 assists 131 points +18

Roy 194 games 48 goals 80 assists 128 points +30

I believe that Roy's arguments would be extremely persuasive and that he is far more likely to reach the $ 4 million a year plateau than stay down near the $3 million mark.

This, of course, causes the Sabres another headache. I fell the Sabres could ill-afford to walk away from the award. More likely, in my opinion would be for them to cut ties with someone (Spacek and Kotalik are first to come to mind) to clear salary. I respect the Sabres business plan, but it is becoming more apparent by the day that to remain competitive the Sabres will have to readjust up from their current salary structure or fail miserably.

Crosby signs 5-year contract extension

UPDATED 10:49 AM:
This is now official, as reported by the Pittsburgh Post-Gazette.

--

The Penguins have signed center Sidney Crosby to a five-year contract extension. The deal is worth $43 million, an annual salary-cap hit of $8.7 million.

It will take effect in the 2008-09 season.

"Sidney has proven himself to be a dynamic player and team leader at a very young age, and it is exciting news for our franchise and our fans to have him under contract for the next six seasons, through 2013," said Fred Shero, the Penguins executive vice president and general manager.

"When you've got a guy who leads the league in scoring and wins the MVP award at the age of 19, you know have someone very special. But Sid also is a tremendous asset for this organization as a leader in the dressing room, and as the face of our franchise in the community. And the fact that he wants to be here long-term is a great statement about the city of Pittsburgh and our organization," Shero said.

---

According to the ever-famous anonymous hockey blogger, Eklund, over at HockeyBuzz.com, the Pittsburgh Penguins have agreed to a 5-year contract extension with young phenomenon Sidney Crosby estimated to be worth in the neighbourhood of $45 million, or, $9 million per season.

"Sid The Kid" became the youngest player ever to win a scoring title last year by scoring 36 goals and adding 84 assists to capture the Art Ross, the Hart, the Pearson and on top of it all, being part of the Eastern Conference's First All-Star team.

CROSBY FIVE YEAR EXTENSION AGREED TO
I just spoke to Brian Metzer who will be posting shortly, but he is hearing that the the deal is somewhere in the neighborhood of 5 years, 45 million.

Brian will be posting a blog shortly in "Blogging the NHL."

A source confirmed to me that the Penguins have agreed to a five year extension in the neighborhood of 9 per season, and since Sid is still under contract for the upcoming season that means 6 more years of Sid in steeltown.

Great work as always by Brian.

There's absolutely no way Crosby would have made anything less than that ghastly big amount the Penguins just handed him, if anything, he made less than what some teams would be willing to give him should he have hit the open market someday.
I know this IS Crosby we're talking about, the next "Great One" crap and all, but seriously, how much longer is this "new NHL" going to go on if top-talent players keep commanding this kind of amount?

And what about next year? Dany Heatley and Patrick Marleau will both likely break the bank should they hit unrestricted free-agency, and where does that leave the rest of those second-tier quality players?

It leaves them salivating with the idea of applying a hefty price tag to any team that wants to pick him up, with the top talent gone, basically raising the market price to a whole new level the NHL SHOULD NOT be going into.

Let's imagine this is a decent forward with many available options and teams seeking him speaking:

"Hey, Heatley just signed a 7-year/$60 million deal! That makes other teams who lost out on him come to me!
Hehe, with that kind of attention shift, I can really ask for more money now that they'd be willing to bring someone in like me since they totally failed to get Heatley!
KACHING!
I'll be seeing green for the rest of my life, and who cares where I end up now as long as they give me the $$$$$$"

I wonder why we had this lockout in the first place and why fans like you and I spent an entire year lamenting the loss of hockey only to be treacherously close to falling back into that hole we all thought the NHL climbed out of two years ago.

And I shiver to think that so many players have "Decent forward"'s mentality as mentioned in my make-believe quote above.

$$$$$$

--BBR

Yeah, this was unexpected: Yashin wants to play in Montreal...

Fresh off a huge buyout of the remainder of his 9-year/$90 million contract, that has the entire hockey world talking, and on the first day he's allowed to negotiate with other NHL teams, Alexei Yashin is at it again, except this time, Montreal is his desired target.

That's right, Alexei Yashin WANTS to play for the Montreal Canadiens.

Baffled by first reading this on RDS, I actually softened my position regarding Yashin and his Islander failure, by thinking straightly.

"Hey, this would be a pretty decent pickup at a decent price"

And why not, Yashin is still a damn good forward and was on pace to have his best season ever with the Islanders and led them in scoring through one third of the campain, until he got injured, and was never the same when he returned.

Losing his patience with the enigmatic Russian captain, Isles head coach Ted Nolan pencilled in Yashin as the team's 4th line centre for the last 15 or so games, the move outraged Yashin while fans were happy to see he got the punishment he so longly deserved.

He finished with 18 goals and 32 assists, for a respectable total of 50 points in only 58 games.

Everyone knows the "Alexei Yashin Islanders Crusade" fairy tale, and that now it is clear, that this little adventure with Mad Mike's team was never meant to be.

Now, he wants to don the bleu, blanc et rouge, and seriously...WHY NOT?

He'd be a great addition, but nothing more than 2-2.5 million for him, Bob, please.
Maybe we could really be getting something here by playing an all-Russian line: the doghoused Sergei Samsonov, the centre Alexei Yashin and the man of the year...Alex Kovalev.

But if these guys seriously were to get their grooves back, wow, NHL, watch out...
Stanley Cup? Here we come!

Yashin's "list" includes Los Angeles, Washington and most recently, according to Yahoo! Sports, the Ottawa Senators.

--BBR

Cap to up to 52 million?...Outdoor games encore?

There are a few interesting tidbits out there that may have gone unnoticed due to the Cup Final euphoria/Chris Pronger suspension and all.

Here's the latest news...

-Salary Cap to go up to $52 million

Larry Brooks reported recently on his blog, very briefly, that the NHL Salary Cap ceiling may be at $52 million for the upcoming season, this contradicts previous reports from media moguls like TSN, Sportsnet and the Score, that the cap will rise to an estimated $49 million.

All I have to say is, NHL, watch out.

I'm getting a bad feeling in my gut that the annual raise in the Salary Cap will bring us back to those old NHL days, and that NHL GM's will continue spending in a pricey way.

Why does the cap have to keep going up, why can't it just stay at say $49 million for a long while, and in 5 years or so, the NHL evaluates its finances and how it's improved and decides from there.

The people in the NHL's Board Room are making decisions that could potentially harm the game, especially if GM's go back to their freespending ways.

Thank God we are not in the MLB, that's all I have to say.

-Outdoor hockey game revisited?

ESPN claims inside NHL sources report that the NHL is indeed planning a follow-up to 2003's highly successful ''Heritage Classic'' which featured the Canadiens and the Oilers, and both of their vintage teams.

If your memory is foggy, guys like Guy Lafleur and Wayne Gretzky faced off in the Old-Timers game, while Jose Theodore introduced the Canadiens tuque he wore on his head in the actual NHL game as they skated in sub-zero temperatures at a packed Commonwealth Stadium in Edmonton.

I would very much appreciate another outdoorer, even if it didn't include my Habs, would a Rangers vs. Islanders, or Detroit vs. Toronto game sound good?
Meh, the fact that it was two Canadian teams that faced each other made it more interesting than if it was some American team.

Then again, Original Six teams like the Rangers, Red Wings, Maple Leafs, Bruins or Blackhawks (as long as they got their old-timers) might make that an interesting experience.

-NHL to announce 2 expansion cities?

Bob McCown, during ''Primetime Sports'' on the Fan590 radio waves in Toronto 4 days ago, said that there's a rumour the NHL will announce two Western expansion towns, and that Las Vegas and Kansas City are two strong options, McCowan noted that Winnipeg was rejected and that these ''meetings'' have already taken place.

Hmmm, why not a place like Portland instead of Kansas City?
Geez, I just cringe at the thought of bringing hockey to a place like KC, I mean that's almost as bad as bringing a hockey team to Oklahoma!
And why, God tell me, was Winnipeg rejected while Kansas City, who can't even field a decent baseball team, is considered a strong option?

Just, please, Gary Bettman: let these two cities be legitimate hockey towns, and not KANSAS CITY or OKLAHOMA!

--BBR

Markov: c'est fait! The $23 million man...

Markov: C'est fait! That was RDS.ca's title of the article they have on Andrei Markov.
The $23 million man, Markov now top-paid player in team's history: The Gazette's intruiging yet FANTASTIC TITLE.

Wait, I have to be unprofessional for a second:
YEEEESSSSS!!!!!!!
YEEEESSSSS!!!!!!!
YEEEESSSSS!!!!!!!
YEEEESSSSS!!!!!!!

Phew, glad I got that out!

Just a single day after my first part to my "Which Hab...only one Hab...$$$$$ Hab" series, featuring ANDREI MARKOV and the MONTREAL CANADIENS, the Canadiens did well and signed the 28-year old Russian to a 5-year $23 million contract.

Markov is now the team's top-paid player in team history, surpassing Saku Koivu's $4,75 million annual mark, and Alex Kovalev's $4,5 million mark.

Markov, get this, will make more than 3 times more money than he made last season with the Canadiens.

He will receive an average of $5.75 million per season, Brian McCabe type numbers, a hefty raise from his 2007 $1.5 million salary.

The priority now remains Sheldon Souray according to GM Bob Gainey, with the cap going up and salary being cleared, thinks that the Habs have enough room to retain Souray as well:
"The question is whether he thinks we have enough", said Gainey.

Gainey also indicated to the press yesterday that the Habs will begin talks with Souray shortly and hope to get a deal done before July 1st.

Look for today's SOURAY vs GAINEY battle, and Souray will be a Hab for 5 more seasons tomorrow as well.

Habs Inside/Out
Current Habs History and Opinion

--BBR

Goalie makeover complete for Flyers with Biron signing...

On Trade Deadline Day 2007, Sabres goalie Martin Biron did not participate in his team's morning skate, which led to wild speculation of him being dealt.
Those rumours persisted for about an entire season and began once Ryan Miller took over Martin Biron as the Sabres number one man.

A Biron trade wasn't too unexpected but this was sure unexpected.

The Philadelphia Flyers, the worst team in the National Hockey League acquire Biron at the twilight of the season for a 2nd round draft choice.
It did shock me as I thought Biron would've been moved to a team seeking a starting man heading into the playoffs...nevertheless, the move made perfectly sense on Paul Holmgren's part.
The Flyers, having a dreadful year, weren't getting much from their goalies, young Antero Niittymaki sports a very un-cool 3.41 GAA and horrific 9-28-9 record, and the monster that is Robert Esche, whose injuries and inconsistency have merited him a 5-9-1 record and a 4.32 GAA.
I bet you Esche would be an elite goalie...in the AHL.

Esche, a UFA on July 1st, will not be coming back to the Flyers, and with Martin Biron signed on for two more seasons and Antero Niittymaki being favoured over him, there's only room in the pressbox for him.

Martin Biron happily arrived in Philadelphia and was enthusiastic about getting the once fierce Eastern Conference franchise back on its feet, and the notion of the Flyers being 100 times worse than the Sabres doesn't bother him, and it shouldn't, as he's now the undisputed clear number one guy.

And they showed him he's their number one guy by signing him to a 2-year contract extension worth $7 million, or, $3.5 million annually.
The move keeps Biron in Philadelphia until 2009 and possibly beyond.

Biron, a former Sabres first round draft choice, is 16-9-2 with a 3.01 GAA in 29 games this season and is 4-5-1 with a 2.96 GAA and .913 save percentage in 10 games with the Flyers.

The .913 stat right there is a 20 point improvement over the other two guys, whose futures in the city of Brotherly Love is now pointed to uncertain.

Esche is a goner, but Antero Niittymaki could be also, with his contract expriring at the end of the season, he's eligible for RFA status.
Niittymaki's agent has stated that his client would consider playing in Europe next season.
This scenario would be great for Antero Niittymaki, not only would he be a starter, but he won't have to permenantly back-up Biron.
However, the Finnish netminder said that it would be hard to go to Europe, as there aren't many jobs available.

"They want to give me a qualifying offer. I don't know. It's not that easy just to go to Europe. Not too many jobs available. If I sign the qualifying offer, I have to work hard to get some games next year."

"I don't think you can ever discount solid goaltending," Holmgren said. "At the end of the day, you have to have it, no matter how many goals you score. You have to have the guy who can make the timely saves and that your team has confidence in."

Biron, as I stated earlier, is excited about this challenge.

"Personally, this is very big for me," Biron said. "It was big that they came in and got me at the trade deadline, to be able to know more about me and introduce me to this organization and move forward. I want to move forward, too. That was a big part of my decision."

Biron is key for the Flyers if they expect to rebound next season and they will depend on him heavily, which raises the question if the Flyers should bring back Antero Niittymaki next season, just so he can rot on the bench, or should they just bring a minor-league scrub up like Martin Houle to back him up? Kind of like Dany Sabourin backing up Roberto Luongo in Vancouver.

Kovalev and Yashin la creme de la creme of the NHL's 4th liners...

Alexei Yashin (left) and Alex Kovalev (right) are the best 4th line players in the NHL

Alexei Yashin was demoted to the fourth line in Tuesday's game at Tampa Bay, as coach Ted Nolan was steamed that he did not cover Vincent Lecavalier in the second period, leading to a goal. "Whether it's our captain or not, you have to perform. At this time of the year, there's no excuses."

Alexei Yashin is now the most expensive 4th liner in the National Hockey League, beating out the Canadiens' Alex Kovalev by a $5 million margin.
Kovalev is making $4.5 million in Bleu, Blanc et Rouge this season whereas Yashin's always-famous 10 year/$90 million contract is still glaring brightly in Long Island.

Ironically, both players are underachieving and they're getting paid a lot of money to do so. But, both still remain top-notch players with Kovalev getting the slight edge, despite his inconsistency.

Yashin was well on his way to his best season since signing the second biggest deal in Islanders history (recently beaten out by Rick DiPietro's 15-year contract) until a knee injury put him out of action for a good period of time.
Since his return to the lineup, Yashin has only 2 points in 6 games, and is hardly the player he was in the first part of the season, as he formed a great duo with impending UFA Jason Blake, who's still going strong.

Kovalev was benched in a game against the Ottawa Senators a few weeks ago as the Canadiens dropped back-to-back games against the latter and falling lower in the playoff race, when he gave the puck away at his own blue-line, costing his team the game.

New York Newsday cites that he was benched for a nearly identical reason, as he did not cover Vincent Lecavaler who added to his league leading goal total and helped his team go 2-0 over the Islanders. The Islanders fought back with 3 consecutive goals from Richard Zednik, Richard Park and Miroslav Satan to take the lead but the Lightning still ended up winning in overtime.
The loss was costly as the Islanders fell to 11th place in the Eastern Conference, 1 point behind the 8th spot which is up for grabs by three teams (Canadiens, Maple Leafs and Hurricanes)

Yashin has been an underachiever since he came to New York, fresh off outstanding season with the then-depleted Ottawa Senators, he was expected to produce big-time and put up all-star numbers, season-by-season.
He has not done that and up until today, he has been an average (for his salary) 60-70 point player for the Islanders and has not helped them advance past the first round of the playoffs.

The Russian-born player still remains however, a good tennis parter of owner Charles Wang...and the Russian-born Kovalev is excelling on the 4th line with Quebecois rookies Maxim Lapierre and Guillaume Latendresse, some even say it's been his best showing in a long time.

The move to the 4th line is likely temporary in Yashin's case, since excluding certain teams, as the Canadiens, Sabres and Stars, the 4th line doesn't get much ice time.

Alex Kovalev has 14 goals and 28 assists for a total of 42 points in 65 games this season, a considerable drop-off of the 65 he ammassed in 69 games last season.
Captain Yashin has 14 goals and 26 assists for a toal of 40 points in 48 contests.
Yashin has the slight advantage of a better entourage than Kovalev, who had to suffer with Sergei Samsonov and the used-to-be mediocre Tomas Plekanec on his side.

I don't think Samsonov is exactly Blake, but, nonetheless, both are underachieving, highly-skilled players.